Triangle of Death 2
Wretchard at Belmont Club suggests that the insurgency could be hoping to adopt the Taliban model of opposition: "The appeal to their jihadi comrades in Afghanistan and Pakistan is intriguing because it suggests that the Taliban's style of fighting may now be viewed as the relevant model by the Iraqi insurgents. From their previous position of pre-eminence, the Taliban have been forced to adopt a very dispersed and low intensity fight against a US force allied to an increasingly established government. It is a position which the Sunni insurgents, unless they can reverse their fortunes, may soon find themselves in." If the insurgency is forced to adopt this model by our actions, not only is it a sign of their increasing problems after the Battle of Fallujah, but this type of opposition is untenable on its face. The survival of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a result of the country's favorable terrain. An insurgency of this sort will not survive in the desert of central Iraq, even around the vegetated areas adjacent to the Euphrates -- the terrain favors the attackers, not the defenders. If they are isolated and cut off within the triangle, they will be destroyed, and probably rather quickly. Such is not the case when isolated in the mountains of the Hindu Kush. The options are shrinking for the Iraqi insurgency, though as Wretchard reminds us,"it would be unwise to conclude that the insurgents are on the run without further collateral evidence because effective disinformation is often pitched to what we want to believe." A good point. We'll have to look for confirmation elsewhere -- though reading between the lines will of course be necessary given the generally poor reporting.