CHESTER HAS MOVED!: It begins . . . no mercy!

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

It begins . . . no mercy!

I think the Battle of Fallujah has started. Note: if this is the case, it is as I type exactly 18 minutes since the polls closed in Hawaii and the West Coast. My prediction was accurate. I'll continue looking for signs that the fight has begun. Until then, I'd like to address the concerns of an alert reader,who posted in the comments section his belief that if Allawi is calling the shots, he may not aim for a decisive battle, but may instead seek to negotiate with the insurgents, as he did with Sadr's militia. The reader notes that decisive battle is a western concept, and is not nearly as well adhered to in the middle east. This is an outstanding point, and kudos for raising it. As the military historian Victor Davis Hanson has pointed out, in his book Carnage and Culture: Landmark Battles in the Rise to Western Power, among other places, the concept of decisive battle is distinctly western and descends to us from the Greeks. Nevertheless, I don't think that the Najaf model of battle broken with negotiations will hold up for Fallujah. I think that a decisive victory will be sought. Here are my reasons: Sadr is a popular Iraqi whose father was a famous Shi'ite cleric and anti-Saddam dissident. This made Sadr more a part of the Iraqi political culture or establishment than any of the insurgents in Fallujah. The only figurehead we know of in Fallujah is Zarqawi (if he's there; I think so), and Zarqawi is a Jordanian. He cannot be negotiated away. Similarly, the foreign fighters there will not get participation in any political processes or parties. They aren't even Iraqis! Next, the insurgent-allied tribes and sheiks in Fallujah and Ramadi are Sunni, and were closely tied with Saddam's regime. Whereas the majority of Iraq's population is Shi'ite, and had/has some sympathies for Sadr, they will have no such sympathies for former-Ba'athist Sunni tribes, which are in the minority anyway. Bottomline: I think this will not be negotiated away. Decisive battle it is! UPDATE: I could have pulled the trigger a little early. The news story I linked to states that there were two airstrikes during the night and that a US press release said, "Marine Expeditionary Forces will continue to conduct operations and will not cease until Fallujah is free of foreign terrorists and insurgents." I think it is kicking off but I am not so sure as I was. Look for combined arms attacks, not just airstrikes. That will mean it is happening in earnest.

4 Comments:

Blogger Cruiser said...

I think I hear the whistling of the terrible swift sword.

November 3, 2004 at 12:04 PM  
Blogger cjr said...

More evidince it has started?
--------------------------------------------------
Fallujah-Ramadi Operations Update

Fallujah, Iraq - Iraqi Security Forces and Multi-National Force-Iraq continue to degrade and disrupt anti-Iraqi forces in the Fallujah-Ramadi area. I Marine Expeditionary Force used Marine Corps and Air Force aviation assets to deliver precision munitions to destroy preplanned targets in southern Fallujah.

In the last 12 hours, ISF, supported by elements of the MNF-I, are conducting coordinated offensive operations in and around the Fallujah-Ramadi area. I MEF destroyed a known weapons cache and a command post.

At 10:50 p.m., Nov 2, an MNF aircraft, supporting a U.S. Marine Corps element, struck a preplanned target with precision weapons, striking a known anti-Iraqi cache site in the southeastern part of the city.

At 5 a.m., Nov. 3, Marine Corps aircraft, supporting a U.S. Marine Corps element, destroyed a known command post with precision munitions, which was also preplanned. The mission also occurred in the southeast.

Since Monday, Multi-National forces reported several attacks from AIF, including small arms fire, indirect fire, rocket propelled grenades, and improvised explosive devices.

I MEF will continue to conduct operations and will not cease until Fallujah is free of foreign terrorists and insurgents.

Release #041103b

November 3, 2004 at 1:14 PM  
Blogger Michael Sanches said...

You mentioned "Devildogs." Is this the First Marine Regiment, one of the Battalions, or one of the companies?

Thanks,

November 3, 2004 at 6:57 PM  
Blogger schutzhund said...

Nov. 4, 2004
Press Release A041104a



Fallujah-Ramadi area operations update


FALLUJAH, Iraq - Iraqi Security Forces and I Marine Expeditionary
Force-Multi-National Forces-West continue to degrade and disrupt
anti-Iraqi forces in the Fallujah-Ramadi area, employing US Air Force
aviation assets to deliver precision munitions to destroy preplanned
targets in southern Fallujah.
In the last 12 hours, Multi-National Forces-West conducted
coordinated offensive operations in and around the Fallujah-Ramadi area.
The I Marine Expeditionary Force destroyed several barricaded fighting
positions.
At 12:20 a.m. Nov. 4, a U.S. Air Force aircraft, supporting a U.S.
Marine Corps element, struck a preplanned target with precision weapons,
striking known anti-Iraqi barricaded fighting positions in the
northeastern part of the city.
At 12:50 a.m. Nov. 4, US Air Force aircraft, supporting a U.S.
Marine Corps element, destroyed several known fighting barricaded
positions, which were also preplanned. The mission occurred in the
southeast.
In four days, since Nov. 1, Multi-National Forces-West recovered
and destroyed 129 mortars, 39 artillery shells, 37 Rocket-Propelled
Grenades, 12 rockets, seven mines, 126 detonators, 350 electronic
timers, 16 blasting caps, three sticks of dynamite and more than a
thousand rounds of ammunition.

I MEF Media Team

November 3, 2004 at 9:50 PM  

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