CHESTER HAS MOVED!: Barbarians Target Children; Other Updates

Friday, November 05, 2004

Barbarians Target Children; Other Updates

It makes sense that the insurgents would target children for indiscriminate murder. This would be a big news story and would attempt to turn the Iraqi populace against the battle. I hope that most children have left Fallujah. In other news, this article has several interesting tidbits. I'll first note that the article states that the I MEF spokesman has indicated that I MEF is "preparing the battle space." I scooped Bloomberg on this myself over two days ago, on the 3rd. See my post from 3 November. Second, the story states that there are 35,000 troops outside Fallujah. I think that this most likely is the number of total troops in the Sunni triangle or Anbar province. I've stated earlier that I think 1st Marines will attack into Fallujah. I think this still makes sense. They can't take all the troops in the entire province and pour them into one city. it would lead to too much unrest in the rest of the province. Plus figure at least 40% of that 35,000 is support or aviation troops. Even if you include the Iraqis, I think our attacking force will be no more than 10,000. Another article notes that all of the embedded media positions in I MEF have been completely filled. It will be interesting to see how the coverage goes once it kicks off. I will try to follow that enough to offer some insight. I have done a detailed analysis of troop positions and have a theory of which infantry battalion will be the first to begin the ground assault. I am hesitant to publish this though. I also have an idea as to how the overall assault force will look. Hesitant to describe this too, but I will say this: I am changing an original prediction. A week ago I said that I thought the offensive throughout the Sunni triangle would begin at the same time and be coordinated. Not so sure about this now. I think we might see a rolling assault. Fallujah will be first, and then the assault forces will move to other cities. Without going into details about why I think this, I will instead do some more investigating over the next day or so to see if the rolling assault theory has legs. I'll stress again that my theories on this page are completely based on open-source info. I have no access to military planning documents or sites. A final note for now: If you want to speculate about when Phase Two, the ground assault, will begin, don't forget whose birthday is on November 10th. More later tonight . . . [Admin note: Thanks to all of you who have visited a sponsor today. I appreciate it.]

6 Comments:

Blogger Bacelic said...

I bet the children knew that facility was rigged with the explosives. The building was probably used by US snipers from time to time. The locals were warned, but were too scared to tell the GIs (Ramadi is infested with insurgents so they were afraid of retaliation)or didn`t tell them because they hate them. Somebody still tipped them off, in all probability, maybe a parent concerned for a child or more probably the kids tired of not being able to play there :-) If insurgents wanted to blow up a bunch of kids, they could certainly do so.

I read that two snipers from 2nd Bat, 5th Marine Reg. were killed in Ramadi area yesterday. This marine battalion seems to be suffering many casualties lately. 10 KIA since Sep.12th according to icasualties.org. Ramadi is a very dangerous city and larger than Fallujah.

November 5, 2004 at 2:03 PM  
Blogger fjelehjifel said...

Question for Chester: ABC evening news (11/05/04) says that most insurgents in Fallujah have already exfiltrated and are hiding on the outskirts of Baghdad. They also said that Marine road blocks have only recently been deployed on the main roads to Fallujah. Perhaps I've been under a misimpression, but I thought the city was surrounded and cut-off since mid-October. What's your assessment? Thanks.

Fireforeffect.

November 5, 2004 at 4:23 PM  
Blogger Matt said...

Hoorah!

Acquire fire and re-tire!

Great insights.

I'll link you on my blog soon:

http://refinerscrucible.blogspot.com

-Matt

November 5, 2004 at 7:40 PM  
Blogger Tony Lekas said...

I just discovered this blog. Thanks for your take on what is going on over there. I have given up on most of the MSM. I left this comment here because I could not find an email link. You might want to add one. Also - The white on black small text is kind of hard on the eyes, especially for the older folks. :-)

November 5, 2004 at 8:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

United States Marine Corps

Lord, look over our brothers in Fallajah, who are fighting right now.

Let the innocent see a Marine’s compassion; The vanquished, a

Marine’s mercy; But for the enemies of Peace, who falsely invoke

Your Name, deliver unto them the fury of the Corps, into their

teeth; And for those cowards who would use the innocent to shield

them as they attack our brothers, give Your Marines grace and guide

their marksmanship, that the innocent may be spared, and the

guilty delivered unto You for Your judgment. Receive unto Your

Bosom the souls of those who have fallen, and let rest their spirit

with the gratitude of those whose freedom their lives have purchased.

Let them be revered as Peacemakers, and walk through the valley of

the shadow of death no more, but instead with their faces in Your

Light forever. Bless their families and loved ones, and grant that

they find comfort that, while their Marine may have fallen to

the Earth, his spirit has risen to Heaven.

Semper Fi, God.

Amen

November 9, 2004 at 9:14 AM  
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October 28, 2005 at 7:02 AM  

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