The Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program, Part II

In Part I yesterday, The Adventures of Chester attempted to show, among other things: -That confrontation with Iran is looming because of Iran's weapons program. -That the US must make its decision to act within the next 12-18 months. Today: GOALS OF US ACTION The key to unraveling and predicting the steps which the US will take with regard to Iran lies in deciphering what the American political goals will be. A word on strategic goals, from Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication 1-1, "Strategy": "Despite their diversity, political objectives in war can be labeled as either limited or unlimited. The distinction is fundamental. An unlimited political objective amounts to the elimination of the opponent as a political entity. A limited political objective on the other hand, is one in which the enemy's leadership can survive and remain in power . . . "An unlimited political objective, then, may embrace anything from merely deposing a particular leader to physically exterminating an entire people or culture. Ideological revolutionaries, would-be world conquerors, and both sides in most ture civil wars tend to seek unlimited political objectives. Occasionally, defensive alliances seeking to eliminate a habitual aggressor will also pursue an unlimited political objective. "Conversely, a limited political objective includes anything short of eliminating the political opponent. It is envisioned that the enemy leadership will remain in control after the conclusion of hostilities, although some aspects of its power (influence, territory, resources, or internal control) will be reduced or curtailed. Limited political objectives are the characteristic of states seeking better positions in the international balance of power, clans vying for political position within a larger society, mafias or street gangs battling for "turf", and reformist political movements. " Examples of each: Limited Political Objectives: (opposing political leadership survives) -intimidate -cause change in policy -reduce enemy miliary capacity -take slice of territory Unlimited Political Objectives: (opposing political leadership is removed) -change regime -change form of government/ruling class -conquer/absorb -exterminate (genocide) What will the goals of US action in Iran be, with regard to its weapons program? There are many possibilities, but two are distinct: 1. Limited Political Objective: Remove the Iranian nuclear weapons program. 2. Unlimited Political Objective: Remove the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the Iranian regime that created it. Many variations of these two goals exist, but these are the most fundamental. For example, a tangential goal could be stopping Iranian support to the Iraqi insurgency. Moreover, there are varying degrees of action for each goal. Removing the Iranian regime could involve simply that and no postwar stability operations at all, in a distinctly realist fashion. Or the removal of the regime could be accompanied by a US goal to create a free and democratic replacement -- an ideological goal, a la Iraq or Afghanistan. Tomorrow, in Part III, The Adventures of Chester will begin to examine different operational campaigns to accomplish either of the above political objectives. A series of alternatives will be examined for each objective, and each one analysed against the criteria of: -Possibility of accomplishing the given political objective -Constraints in time, space and material -Reinforcement of overall national strategy against Islamic Fascism (the War on Terror) -Iranian Responses