Prediction Roundup

Here's a quick summary of all I have predicted thus far, in no order: 1. US attack will begin when US election is over. Result: Correct. Phase One began Tuesday night, US time. 2. US Order of Battle will include at least 1st Marine Regiment, at least one MEU, and several thousand Iraqi troops. Result: Inconclusive thus far. NYTimes reports at least one battalion from Army's 1st ID involved. Black Watch also acting as blocking force. 3. Zarqawi is still in the city. Result: ????? 4. US will execute an extremely well-detailed operational plan, honed over 7 months, rehearsed and grasped by the lowliest Marine on the ground. The planning will be flexible to changes in the situation on the ground. Result: Correct. The speed of the inital movements indicates this is the case. 5. Black Watch is a blocking force, with highway from Fallujah to Baghdad a free-fire zone for Marine Air. Result: Signs point to yes, but too soon to tell. 6. Campaign will be in three phases: Phase I: Shaping the Battlespace, Phase II: Ground Assault, Phase III: Exploitation, Pursuit, Reconstruction. Result: Correct so far. Note: Phase II will be divided into several Stages. We have likely witnessed the completion of Stage A. 7. US has excellent technical and human intelligence. Result: Inconclusive. 8. Insurgents will stand and fight. Result: Inconclusive. I'll address reports that many insurgents have fled the city for others in the Sunni triangle later tonight. 9. The US and Iraq will seek to decisively engage the insurgents, and will not stall for negotiations or political solutions. Result: Signs point to yes. 10. The battle will last a week to two weeks in Fallujah, and then roll to other cities. The assault on other cities' insurgents is likely triggered by certain key triggers or objectives being met that we are not privy to. Result: ????? NEW PREDICTIONS: 11. The insurgents will kill more Iraqi civilians than US ground troops will. Result: Too soon to tell. 12. We are likely to see veterans of other Al Qaeda campaigns surface in Fallujah; what you might call the "enlisted" fighters of Al Qaeda -- the committed trigger-pullers as opposed to the plotting, more notorious commanders. Look for many of the foreign fighters to be vets of Somalia, Afghanistan, etc. Result: Too soon to tell. Note: I'll give special mention in a post to anyone who can find imagery, a graphic, or a map of the seized hospital. We need to know where it is. Note: I will attempt to interpret what is happening, and to make predictions on this page. I will not second-guess our ground commanders. I'll leave that to the armchairists on the Sunday-morning talk shows.