CHESTER HAS MOVED!: ABC News: U.S. Launches Second Phase in Fallujah

Thursday, November 11, 2004

ABC News: U.S. Launches Second Phase in Fallujah

About "Phase 2" . . . This ABC story and this Yahoo News story, both from the AP, mention Phase 2 of the Fallujah battle, but both have no quotes from military personnel saying it is "Phase 2." In fact, I cannot find a quote that this is phase 2 beginning. Let's assume it does come from a US military spokesman though. What can this tell us? In planning a campaign, the first division of tasks is into phases. The next division is into stages. I've posted several times that I think this is a three-phase battle in Fallujah, 1. Shaping the Battlespace 2. Ground Assault 3. Exploitation, Reconstruction, Installation of Government, and that we are currently in Phase 2, Ground Assault. If a military spokesman has said Phase 2 starts today, that means that I am off a little in the scope of the planning, not the overall sequence of events. If Phase 2 is starting today, that means that: Phase 1 has ended. Phase 1 probably consisted of many Stages, with letter designators: A, B, C. So shaping the battlefield was a smaller task than if it required its own phase, and was instead a stage of Phase 1. Same with the initial ground assault. it would be very interesting to know what the triggers were for calling Phase 2: could be capture of key terrain, teh convergence and link-up of two units (like the Army Cav regiment and one of the RCTs -- they've kind of been doing an L-shaped attack), etc. One of the things that Phase changes can mean is a change in boundaries. This is probably the case here, as reports that US forces have crossed Highway 10 running through central Fallujah indicate a possible boundary shift. What is more significant is that the Phase change happens after the vast majority of the city has been picked over. This could indicate that the next stage in this phase will involve both reconstruction, etc very rapidly in Fallujah, and assaults in other cities.


Blogger M said...

Rebels Try to Break Through Iraq Cordon
According to Yahoo, the rebels are try to break through the Iraq cordon. What does this mean? Most likely the "rebels" are the blocking force. Meaning they are left to fight to the death. I believe they wish to inflict enough casualties on the US forces to slow us, or worse yet, break out will. I doubt they think the beat us in the traditional sense.

I imagine the terrorists believe bad PR out of the combat zone will upset the U.S. populations appetite for this war. I hope not.

November 11, 2004 at 9:35 PM  
Blogger 86Hawki said...

Well, since the election is over and W hasn't even been inaugurated for his second term, if the muj (in general) think they will break our will, they're gonna have to survive a long time to find out. I don't think they'll survive nearly long enough.

November 11, 2004 at 9:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phase, stage, shcmage! That is all irrelevant terminology/conceptualizing verbosity. Things happen, partly (sometimes, but not often, largely) as foreseen and planned, more-or-less, abstracting from details, on whatever scale is appropriate to the consumer of said abstraction. The planners have a set of abstractions (phases, stages, whatever). The external ex-post observer/analyst is not bound to those abstractions, and can generally best understand the actual events by constructing his own set of conceptualizations, informed by what actually happened. Central contention: the best ex-post explanation/analysis of what actually happened is constructed by reference to what did, in fact, actually happen -- not by how the planners envisaged same.

November 11, 2004 at 10:00 PM  
Blogger 49erDweet said...

Ignore anonymous. He/she knows not whereof he/she speaketh.

Keep on posting on. You are doing fine, and it makes a lot of sense.

November 11, 2004 at 11:32 PM  
Blogger Eduardo said...

Congratulations, Chester. You are the proud owner of a blog troll. First FOX now troll all in one day.

November 11, 2004 at 11:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Somewhere, I read in the MSM that crossing Highway 10 indicated start of the Phase II.

For whatever this is worth, perhaps Phase I was the "herding"/encircling/concentrating phase and Phase II is the killing/capturing phase.

This morning, I have been seeing headlines saying that insurgents attempting to escape the southern areas are being "turned back".

"Hangtown Bob"

November 12, 2004 at 5:34 AM  

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