CHESTER HAS MOVED!: Another Iran Analysis

Tuesday, November 30, 2004

Another Iran Analysis

A Nuclear Iran in the Weekly Standard discusses Iran's nuclear program. Interesting, but I don't think there is anything particularly ground-breaking (to loyal readers here anyway) . . . Some tidbits:
THE KIND OF DIPLOMACY spearheaded by Germany, France, and Britain is unlikely to lead to a successful dismantling of Iran's nuclear weapons programs, Russell contends. Sanctions would hurt the Iranian people more than the Islamic regime and could undermine U.S. efforts for regime change. America could offer formal diplomatic relations, economic aid to modernize Iran's oil industry and the release of frozen Iranian assets, but making sure Tehran was using the aid for its intended purpose would be nearly impossible, Russell contends. Likewise, the military option is not without significant risk. An airstrike would involve hundreds of targets; invasion would require more forces than the U.S. has to commit: "The United States now has a significant portion of its total ground forces committed to Iraq and would be hard-pressed to mount a comparable or larger operation simultaneously against Iran." None of the options are perfect, Russell argues, but some things are sure: Iran will continue its nuclear weapons program until it obtains the bomb once and for all--it is seen as a matter of military necessity and the key to Tehran's influence in the region--while hiding behind ambiguity and concealment. A nuclear Iran, however, cannot be tolerated. Iran is well known for its sponsorship of terrorist organizations and has conducted a foreign policy of violence by proxy. The risk that Iran will transfer its nuclear technology to groups such as Hezbollah, whom Iran supports with an estimated yearly stipend of more than $100 million, is great. Additionally, a nuclear-armed Iran would be emboldened to strong-arm America's regional allies into pulling away from the United States or run the risk of an atomic attack by terrorist proxies.
If there are any Alert Readers out there who would like to contribute to the upcoming post on Iran's capabilities, please email me links.


Blogger USMC_Vet said...

The text of the 'Agreement' is stunning. I am left absolutely dumbfounded...and I expected it to be weak...and I find myself dumbfounded, still.

If you have not yet seen the text, it can be read here or here.

Caution: Sit down before reading.

...the longer we wait...

November 30, 2004 at 10:26 PM  

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