Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Final Post

Coming tomorrow . . . In the morning, if I have time: 1. Prediction Roundup 2. Early Bird Articles of Note At mid-day: 1. What if they slipped away? Analysis Using Mao Tse-Tung's "On Guerrilla Warfare" Evening 1. I think Hugh Hewitt will interview me again, but I need to doublecheck. 2. "Live-blogging" continues (is it live when news is a trickle? maybe "Heavy Blogging" or "Fierce Blogging" -- wait, that's only if I'm in the MSM) 3. Rest of Iraq -- been promising this for two days 4. If time, will begin Iran controversy analysis -- also possibly examine new Atlantic Montly articles ADMINISTRATIVE UPDATE 1. Thank you very much for your donations. The first improvement I will put them toward will be probably be transparent to you, loyal readers, but I will configure my Yahoo account to download directly into Microsoft Entourage -- this will require a premium account that costs around $20 I think. This will allow me to manage email much more effectively. Web-based is too slow. Also, I will be subscribing to Access Intelligence, an open-source intelligence network that pushes news to you, rather than your having to pull it. It's free, but Entourage will help me manage that too. 2. You've probably noticed some tinkering with the ads. Consider the page under construction for a few days. 3. Soon to be added -- direct links to book recommendations on Amazon. Also I'm told Haloscan is best for comments and will investigate. 4. Will also try to figure out how to increase the left margin of the text body so you don't have to scroll down too much. 5. My live-blogging (heavy blogging) will continue until I declare Phase II over. After that, will continue to cover the war, national security, intelligence, etc, but in addition to daily posts reacting to events, should have time for a long solid post every two days or so. Should also have time to do dishes, pay bills, make sure I keep my job, etc. 6. Still plan to add a donate button to the Marine Corps Law Enforcement Foundation. I met the head guy there once and he received a Navy Cross in WWII. Good group. Until tomorrow . . .


Anonymous Anonymous said...

As more information comes in, it would be highly interesting to get an insight into the important issue of how the Iraqi (government) forces performed at the battle. Something similar to your breakdown of the US units would be very informative, with the addition of any information you find on things like the background of each Iraqi unit's members (eg. ethnicity/religious sect, past political alliegance, prior military/police experience) and of course how well (or poorly) the unit performed.

It would also be interesting to have your opinion on what the Iraqi performance bodes for the tasks ahead, especially securing and stabilising Fallujah and conducting elections in January.

November 10, 2004 at 12:42 AM  
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November 10, 2004 at 2:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


First, Happy Birthday.
Second, my husband is in Iraq with the 24th MEU right now. I appreciate your website because you give great analysis and you bring together many news sources. And, I am always looking for analysis and news about what is going on over there.
I log on every day.
Thank you so much. Semper Fi.

November 10, 2004 at 3:12 AM  
Blogger Bacelic said...

FALLUJAH, Iraq (AFP) - US marines expect to take complete control of the Iraqi rebel bastion of Fallujah within 48 hours if their assault continues on course, a US military officer said.

"If everything goes as planned we will take full control of the city in the next 48 hours," the officer said.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the officer said the marines would need up to a week to make the northeast corner of Fallujah safe "and at least 10 days to clear the city."

It appears the estimate of 1-2 weeks appears correct. Could someone explain the difference of "controling the city" and "clearing it out and making it safe", in military terms?

November 10, 2004 at 3:23 AM  
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November 10, 2004 at 3:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From: Dee Bates

Please, please, please do not widen the posts. I'm on MSNTV and I can't tell you the number of important blogs I can't read because they change the format to something wide, or add so much on the left that it covers the posts. I know that's asking for something special just for folks like me, but I don't want to lose you, too!

Thanks for your hard work. Your burgeoning popularity shows just how starved the citizens are for real news, news that isn't all gummed up with the reporters biases and/or hatred for the war. You are sorely needed.

November 10, 2004 at 4:00 AM  
Blogger Brittany said...

Great job!

November 10, 2004 at 4:26 AM  
Blogger Lola said...

Thanks for the update! I'm concerned that the fact that US and Iraqi military have been able to move in so quickly means that the key individuals got away, possibly to Iran. These characters need to be tracked down and taken care of so they don't cause any further trouble.

November 10, 2004 at 7:47 AM  
Blogger cjr said...

Iraqi units have been identified:

"Multinational and Iraqi military officials summarized the Iraqi military’s activity in the past 24 hours of the operation:

The 1st Battalion, 1st Brigade of the Iraqi Intervention Force attacked the city as an independent battalion, maneuvering under its own control, but in coordination with the multinational effort. The 1st Battalion is now in control of its own sector in the city.

The 2nd Battalion, 1st Brigade of the IIF attacked and seized the Hydra Mosque along with U.S. Marines of Regimental Combat Team 7

The IIF’s 4th Battalion, 1st Brigade, is attacking targets along with U.S. Marine forces from the 1st RCT

The 5th Battalion, 3rd Brigade of the Iraqi Army seized Al Tawfiq Mosque with U.S. Marines from the 7th RCT

The 6th Battalion, 3rd Brigade of the Iraqi Army is manning vehicle check points along roads in the heart of the city alongside of the U.S. Army’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team

The Iraqi Police Service’s Emergency Response Unit is also at the Hydra Mosque with IIF forces "

November 10, 2004 at 8:05 AM  
Blogger Bacelic said...,0,4087802,print.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Check out these links. First report is from LA Times embed journalist, another from BBC correspondent inside the city. Both claim seeing dead US marines(soldiers?), appearently lying where they fell. Would Marines leave their fallen comrades to lie dead in the streets, just like that, unless there is really heavy fire preventing the extraction of the bodies? Chester, we could use some info on military casualty procedures.

November 10, 2004 at 9:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is just one more "battle" in the efforts to succeed in Iraq. Without several thousand more troops and the placing in the cities of several thousand Iraq police and soldiers, we don't have a chance in hell of destroying or even limiting the insurgent bastard animals that are successfully destroying the peace. If we don't make it happen, it will make the elections a more contested and marginal success. Already several of the "political parties" in Iraq are promising to boycott the elections.

I'm afraid we (for many reasons we could not control) are just coming on a little too late with a lot less than we should have had and done. But thats the way it always is with hindsight, in any case I know that our "Boots" will do more than and better than anyone ever thought possible.

This is my post

Papa Ray
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November 10, 2004 at 9:30 AM  
Blogger cjr said...

This its the most detailed analysis of the Iraq security forces I've seen. Organization, training, equipment . . . .

November 10, 2004 at 10:17 AM  
Blogger cjr said...

NYTimes 11/10:
The insurgents continued to fight and withdraw to new positions as American and Iraqi military forces - relying heavily on artillery and air support - pushed in from the north. Battles continued in the south Falluja neighborhoods of Resala and Nazal as the insurgents appeared to be retreating along a central corridor toward the southern fringes of the city.

November 10, 2004 at 10:25 AM  
Blogger cjr said...

NYTimes 11/10:
At least one enormous battle raged in the center of Falluja until midday Tuesday, as American marines and soldiers, followed by the Iraqi forces, ground their way south and captured the Muhammadia Mosque, which insurgents had been using as a command center and bunker. Eight marines were wounded in the operation, and the military said it had killed many insurgents.

General Metz said most adversaries were now fighting in small units and were unable to mount a unified defense of the city.

November 10, 2004 at 10:28 AM  
Blogger cjr said...

One marine officer, Maj Francis Piccoli, said the rebels had been squeezed into a strip of the city bordering the main east-west road, which splits Falluja.

Another officer, Lt Gen John Sattler, said of the insurgents: "They are now in small pockets, blind, moving across the city. We will continue to hunt them down and destroy them."

November 10, 2004 at 10:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What does it mean whne they say they control 70% of the city? Are those areas they've driven through or are holding?

Also, you mentioned that reports of soldiers going "house to house" are probably not accurate because it is time consuming and dangerous. Well, wouldn't it be necessary to clear the houses and grow a "safe zone" of cleared city blocks?

If I were an insurgent I'd lay low in my house and wait for the soldiers to get semi established before coming above ground and striking. This seems to be the case in some reports of soldiers constantly getting fired on from the rear as they push through the city. Clearing blocks of houses would seem like a slow but solid way to take back the city.

Any thoughts?

November 10, 2004 at 10:58 AM  
Blogger Bacelic said...

"...Some soldiers reported taking fire from mosques and that some women and children were seen firing on soldiers...

American marines and soldiers, followed by Iraqi Security Forces captured the Muhammadia Mosque in one of the largest battles in Fallujah. The New York times reported the Muhammadia Mosque held strategic significance because insurgents were using it as a command center and bunker. A convention center across the street from the mosque was captured as well and the two facilities held numerous weapons, munitions, and IED-making material. Eight marines were killed in that operation as well as an unknown number of insurgents..."

According to GlobalSecurity.

November 10, 2004 at 11:32 AM  
Blogger conelrad1952 said...

Maybe I'm just lame, but do you syndicate your site?

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November 10, 2004 at 2:54 PM  
Blogger carlee said...

From NY Times:

In Camp Falluja, Dr. Allawi's spokesman, Mr. Naqib, said Dr. Allawi was "very happy" with the progress in the Falluja campaign and that there were some insurgent groups who had approached the government asking for terms of surrender.

"We have been contacted by many armed groups during the past hours expressing their desire to surrender to authorities," Mr. Naqib said at a news conference. "The government for its part will extend amnesty to these groups after it confirms that they have committed no major crimes."

November 10, 2004 at 4:19 PM  
Blogger carlee said...

Dissension in the insurgent/terrorist ranks? From the Kansas City Star:

A rebel-allied cleric who gave his name as Sheik Rafaa, reached by telephone Wednesday, said rumors were swirling of shootouts between Iraqi fighters and foreign rebels who tried to flee as U.S. forces approached their posts. The Iraq-based militant group Mohammed's Army claimed it had "executed 20 Arab fighters because they left an area they promised to defend," Sheik Rafaa said.

November 10, 2004 at 4:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Also on Wednesday, the Association of Muslims Scholars, an influential Muslim body, reported that one of its members, Shaikh Abd al-Wahab al-Janabi, has been killed in the ongoing US-led assault on Falluja"
- al Jazeera

Well, one out of four aint bad.

Bacelic said . . .
"Check out these links. First report is from LA Times embed journalist, another from BBC correspondent inside the city. Both claim seeing dead US marines(soldiers?), appearently lying where they fell. Would Marines leave their fallen comrades to lie dead in the streets, just like that, unless there is really heavy fire preventing the extraction of the bodies?"
First off, they could be one and the same. Second, I've read all the interviews with the BBC guy you mention, Fadhil Badrani, and I dont know where they found him, but he's views are a good deal skewd to the terrorrists. Who else would "[go] for a walk around [Falluja]" while bullets are flying around. In short, I dont trust him and his "observations". FInally, I cannot imagine a scenario where U.S. would leave ANY of its servicemen without making a rescue attempt - no matter how fierce the fighting. (btw Badrani said it was quiet when he was strolling.)

November 10, 2004 at 4:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the information on Iraqi forces, cjr. Here are some questions on the topic that have occured to me:

1) Is the above-mentioned Iraqi Police Service Emergency Response Unit the same as the new police commando batallions which proved reliable in previous operations? I seem to recall reading that the police commandos had been sent to Fallujah. They're apparently largely composed of elite soldiers and police from Saddam's regime.

2) How accurate is this description of the 36th Commando?

The article claims that the Kurdish element has had a much lower defection rate than the rest of the unit. Is this accurate? If so, is it primarily because the Kurds are more loyal to the Iraqi government and more happy to shoot Iraqi Arabs (as the writer seems to imply)? Or (as I would guess) because troops from the Kurdish militias will generally have been proved and experienced in battle over the last decade in a way that most ex-SCIRI/INC/Allawi militamen will not?

(Let's hope so - the idea of the Kurds emerging as the IIG's Cossacks isn't very appealing.)

3) In the light of other information, how plausible or otherwise is this excerpt from Stratfor's site, reprinted on (on Tuesday 2am, US Eastern time)?

No Iraqi army or national guard unit fought in Al
Fallujah, sources close to the Interim Iraqi Government
(IIG) say. Iraqi national guard units reportedly have
refused to attack guerrilla positions; their commanders
have been unable to make soldiers move forward and some
officers are siding with the troops. Only the Iraqi army's
special forces unit, which is mostly Kurdish, helped
search for hidden guerrillas behind U.S. Marine lines
outside the city. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers have deserted
to bases around Al Fallujah, the sources added.

Presumably, in light of other reports, we can conclude that the first sentence at least has proved quite wrong? (And consider that "sources close to the IIG" could well be unreliable on this - one of the disaffected Sunni politicians, perhaps?) On the other hand, other sources /have/ supported the report of hundreds of defections.

November 10, 2004 at 7:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

(Apologies if I sound demanding or inquisitorial above, btw. I'm really just throwing out what I hope are interesting questions for others to explore if and when they want to.)

November 10, 2004 at 7:37 PM  
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