CHESTER HAS MOVED!: Prediction Roundup

Sunday, November 07, 2004

Prediction Roundup

Here's a quick summary of all I have predicted thus far, in no order: 1. US attack will begin when US election is over. Result: Correct. Phase One began Tuesday night, US time. 2. US Order of Battle will include at least 1st Marine Regiment, at least one MEU, and several thousand Iraqi troops. Result: Inconclusive thus far. NYTimes reports at least one battalion from Army's 1st ID involved. Black Watch also acting as blocking force. 3. Zarqawi is still in the city. Result: ????? 4. US will execute an extremely well-detailed operational plan, honed over 7 months, rehearsed and grasped by the lowliest Marine on the ground. The planning will be flexible to changes in the situation on the ground. Result: Correct. The speed of the inital movements indicates this is the case. 5. Black Watch is a blocking force, with highway from Fallujah to Baghdad a free-fire zone for Marine Air. Result: Signs point to yes, but too soon to tell. 6. Campaign will be in three phases: Phase I: Shaping the Battlespace, Phase II: Ground Assault, Phase III: Exploitation, Pursuit, Reconstruction. Result: Correct so far. Note: Phase II will be divided into several Stages. We have likely witnessed the completion of Stage A. 7. US has excellent technical and human intelligence. Result: Inconclusive. 8. Insurgents will stand and fight. Result: Inconclusive. I'll address reports that many insurgents have fled the city for others in the Sunni triangle later tonight. 9. The US and Iraq will seek to decisively engage the insurgents, and will not stall for negotiations or political solutions. Result: Signs point to yes. 10. The battle will last a week to two weeks in Fallujah, and then roll to other cities. The assault on other cities' insurgents is likely triggered by certain key triggers or objectives being met that we are not privy to. Result: ????? NEW PREDICTIONS: 11. The insurgents will kill more Iraqi civilians than US ground troops will. Result: Too soon to tell. 12. We are likely to see veterans of other Al Qaeda campaigns surface in Fallujah; what you might call the "enlisted" fighters of Al Qaeda -- the committed trigger-pullers as opposed to the plotting, more notorious commanders. Look for many of the foreign fighters to be vets of Somalia, Afghanistan, etc. Result: Too soon to tell. Note: I'll give special mention in a post to anyone who can find imagery, a graphic, or a map of the seized hospital. We need to know where it is. Note: I will attempt to interpret what is happening, and to make predictions on this page. I will not second-guess our ground commanders. I'll leave that to the armchairists on the Sunday-morning talk shows.


Blogger carlee said...

It looks like a hospital employee (yea-right) was reporting to the press before the MNF took control of the hospital.

Bombings and a gun battle struck the city's main hospital, where patients including three pregnant women were moved to another wing of the building, said Wissam al Issawi, secretary to the hospital director.

Loud explosions could be heard in the background as al Issawi described in a phone interview the broken windows, bouncing bullets and terrified patients. He broke off the conversation, saying he was worried U.S. forces were tracking cell-phone calls in order to find targets. He emphasized that no rebels were hiding out in the hospital.

November 7, 2004 at 8:11 PM  
Blogger Ramrod said...

Just want you to know that we're out here, lurking and waiting on your every revelation!

November 7, 2004 at 8:15 PM  
Blogger tbedilion said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

November 7, 2004 at 8:24 PM  
Blogger tbedilion said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

November 7, 2004 at 9:01 PM  
Blogger USMC_Vet said...

Interesting map w/ Legend....however, I think the hospital is likely westward of this map's western edge...

November 7, 2004 at 9:11 PM  
Blogger chthus said...

"The one-storey Fallujah General Hospital is the city's largest, and is located on the western side on the banks of the Euphrates."®ion=6

November 7, 2004 at 9:17 PM  
Blogger USMC_Vet said...

Check link above & go to 41, 91.

According to NYT political map, this would be the rough coordinates. Like I said, on the western edge of the map and on the western side of the north bridge.

We do not hold a hospital in the middle of The Hood (Jolan), per se. ...Yet...

Cover Tip to tbedilion.

E-mail me and I will send you...ummm...nothing.


...quite sure Chester can read a map w/o crayons.

(Appologies tbedilion, I couldn't resist.)

November 7, 2004 at 9:26 PM  

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