CHESTER HAS MOVED!: Iran 'to halt uranium enrichment'

Sunday, November 14, 2004

Iran 'to halt uranium enrichment'

News outlets are reporting that Iran will its halt uranium enrichment program. Is this a diplomatic coup for Old Europe? Or have they been shanghaied? Consider Friday's editorial in the Wall Street Journal . . . As more news of this deal becomes available, some questions to ask: 1. How will the IAEA verify any of the promises of the Iranians? How cooperative will the mullahs be? 2. How easily can Iran continue with a clandestine nuclear program while appearing to cooperate with the IAEA? 3. What is the current stage of any programs, clandestine or otherwise? At what point does the Iranian program reach a point of no return? 4. Aside from this agreement, what would a more robust diplomatic solution look like? The WSJ article suggests a deal similar to the one made with Libya. Is this even a remote possibility? 5. How will the Europeans describe this step in the press -- will they embrace it and say that it shows the desire of Iran to be a full-fledged member of the international community, etc, or will they be more cautious? This is important because it will signal the level of European support for other US diplomatic action down the road. The Adventures of Chester will aggressively seek answers to all of these questions. Please continue to visit.


Blogger John Koman said...

just thought you might want to send this around. did a search for fallujah on getty images and found this.

November 14, 2004 at 11:07 AM  
Blogger PureData said...

Iran is doing a stall and delay. In working technical issues, taking a few months off allows the technologists to think things through and come up with better ways and approaches. Work can proceed on side areas or on proof-of-concepts - or on increasing capacities. The resources that Iran has developed are not going to sit still. Furthemore, how do we know they have not run into a major supply-chain issue that will take a few months to fix? Only full and complete compliance like South Africa did will convince me that Iran is serious.


Another note:

Iraq brough Iran to its knees in 1988 when it shifted from a war of attrition to a war of manuever. From April to August of that year, Iraq conducted five operations which were text book battles of encirclement and annihilation. While the Iranians relied on prayer, Iraq relied on battle staffs, planning, combined arms, and training.

I imagine that Iran's command and control is just as brittle if not more so today. A sustained period of pychological preparation would turn Iran into a Ukraine waiting for the Germans to come.

November 14, 2004 at 11:30 AM  
Blogger Paul13 said...

What's also quite interesting is the news I found yesterday in the German TV text. They mentioned that Iran agreed only to halt "nearly all" parts of it's uranium program. This sounds to me as if they just want to buy time by putting the already more advanced parts on standby while continuing on the time critical components. As they anyway would have to wait for them they wouldn't lose any time, and when they declare some months later that they - surprise, surprise! - have changed their mind we would have significantly less time to organize a multilateral reaction.

November 15, 2004 at 1:55 AM  
Blogger Beyond The Rim... said...

Is it possible that Iran is having second thoughts considering the success the U. S. has had in prosecuting Fallujah, demonstrating that even in urban warfare the U. S. military is unstoppable.

November 15, 2004 at 10:01 AM  

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